Episode 166: Lessons from 100+ Years of Global Stock Returns

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The new chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is set to announce further changes to the mini-budget today including a deferral to the 1p cut in the basic rate of income tax. So far so good as the markets react to news that the new chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is to announce further changes to last month’s mini- budget which is expected to be all but scrapped. TECRF was created last week to help banks ease liquidity pressures facing their client funds caught up in the recent market turmoil which threatened pension funds. TheBank of England has confirmed that it ended its temporary and targeted purchases of long-dated UK government bonds on Friday afternoon. The positve reaction in the bond market so far today has bought the Government some time according to Russ Mould, investment director, at AJ Bell.

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These will obviously rebound when the Omicron wave recedes, but they speak to the severity of this wave relative to earlier waves. All of that said, it should theoretically take quite a lot to shift an infection with an effective reproduction rate of three as of late December down to a rate of less than one . If governments ease their restrictions in the coming weeks or people begin to behave less cautiously again, it is entirely possible that Omicron infections heat up again. However, these estimates may exaggerate the true decline in the intensity of Omicron infections.

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Understanding Omicron

The motivation behind all of this, of course, is that the U.S. unemployment rate is now below 4% while inflation is above 6% – quite low and high levels, respectively, and both arguing for tighter monetary policy. It is important to understand that temporarily losing 1% of economic output does not mean that annual GDP growth will be 1 percentage point lower. That would only be true if the level of output was depressed for a full year. To the extent that output might be depressed here for a month or two, the net effect should only be a few tenths of a percentage point off of annual GDP. Goldman Sachs estimates its own effective lockdown index for the world, and figures that about one percent of global economic output has been lost to the latest tightening of the screws.

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Stock Market

But if you’re developing return expectations, maybe you would include some of it. And we actually, we’re done that paper now on expected returns. So that paper will come out probably in the next few weeks and we can talk more about it then. This was just a selection of the main features available from some of the leading spread betting companies. Please ensure that you read the company’s full terms and conditions before applying for a spread betting account with them.

We also continue to expect somewhat lower oil prices in 2022. The oil futures market remains in backwardation , and the International Energy Agency forecasts city index review that oil supply will again exceed demand before too long. The two key drivers of high inflation are supply chain problems and high oil prices.

• Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 1.2% in pre-market trading, while those for the S&P 500 were 1.4% higher, and contracts for the Nasdaq-100 added 1.5%.
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• Federal Reserve has been the other key macro theme of the past two months.
• On top of the equity short squeeze, soft economic data gave bulls a glimmer of hope when it comes to policy.
• This is particularly reassuring given the Bank of England has, officially at least, concluded its intervention in the gilt market” he added.

Given the premium which BOO shares trade at, guidance is always king though. Investors will be keeping an eye out for second quarter sales as well as any changes to full-year guidance. US stocks closed mixed, following Yellen’s comment that the Federal Reserve should be wary of moving too slowly on interest rate adjustments. The company said PCF Bank, which only started taking retail deposits in late July, had already taken in about £51mln of savers’ money to date. “The troubled construction company may welcome the takeover approach as it is struggling with high debts, but some shareholders might feel they are being targeted near the all-time low,” he opined.

The other big drivers of returns were the growth rate of real dividends and the change in the price to dividend ratio. So Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton kind of say that in the second half of the 20th century, decreasing risk probably boosted price multiples, but probably permanently. But if risk is lower forever, because regulations are better, property rights are stronger, all that kind of stuff, you wouldn’t expect that to change. So that component of returns, you wouldn’t necessarily expect it to repeat.

Dividend Investing

Combine Bailey’s comments with confidence among traders in Asia trading hours, and we’ve seen a nearly 1% gain on the GBP/USD pair to US$1.13. This follows a three-hour meeting between the prime minister, Liz Truss, and Hunt yesterday according to the BBC. By 8.10 the lead index was trading 17 points higher, at 6,876, while the broader FTSE 250 was up 53 points at 17,086.Sterling was 0.85% against the US dollar at $1.127, while yields on 10-year gilts fell 15 basis points as trading started.

Inflation toppish?

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A bet on a long-term outcome, such as the winner of a division or championship. Can mean either all the competitors in an event, or the odds offered about all non-quoted players or teams. A bet placed on two separate outcomes in one event or different events. Slang term for an underdog, a competitor or team not expected to win.

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Inflation, again, was 3% over that period, so that’s an 8.2% return. I don’t think most people are expecting returns to be that high. And then another interesting suggestion is to have a conversation about the conversation. So if it gets uncomfortable for whatever reason, you can discuss the discussion. I mean, is that really going to happen about index funds versus active funds, a heated discussion?

Spread betting companies are calling the lead index down by around 5 points. A statement is expected later today in another move aimed at reassuring markets with further U-turns expected. FTSE 100 expected to open slightly lower today with attention likely to focus on further changes to the mini-budget with the new chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, expected to address the House of Commons later today. “This action will give ASOS significantly increased financial flexibility, against the uncertain economic backdrop. ASOS retains a strong liquidity position and this is a prudent step in the current environment,” the company said.